Airway management and pulmonary aspiration during surgical interventions in pregnant women in the 2nd/3rd trimester and immediate postpartum - a retrospective study in a tertiary care university hospital.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of pulmonary aspiration during general anaesthesia, but the incidence of this complication is not well defined. METHODS: We performed a retrospective database review in a tertiary care university hospital to determine the incidence of pulmonary aspiration in pregnant patients undergoing endotracheal intubation, with and without Rapid Sequence Induction (RSI), as well as face-mask ventilation and supraglottic airway devices. We included Patients in the 2nd or 3rd trimester of pregnancy and immediate postpartum undergoing surgical procedures. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of pulmonary aspiration. RESULTS: Data from 2,390 patients undergoing general anaesthesia for cerclage of cervix uteri, manual removal of retained placenta, repair of obstetric laceration, or postpartum bleeding were retrospectively evaluated. A supraglottic airway device or face-mask ventilation was used in 1,425/2,390 (60%) of patients, while 638/2,390 (27%) were intubated. RSI was used in 522/638 (82%) of patients undergoing tracheal intubation, or 522/2,390 (22%) of the entire cohort. In-depth review of the charts, including 54 patients who had been initially classified as "possible pulmonary aspiration" by anaesthetists, revealed that this adverse event did not occur in the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, in this obstetric surgery patient population at risk for pulmonary aspiration, supraglottic airway devices were used in approximately 60% of cases. Yet, no aspiration event was detected with either a supraglottic airway or endotracheal intubation.

Prevalence of refractoriness when testing growth hormone levels in children.

OBJECTIVE: Late night spontaneous growth hormone (GH) pulses may influence the pituitary GH response to provocation tests. We evaluated GH response during arginine-insulin-tolerance test (AITT) after a GH peak during a short spontaneous nocturnal profile (SSNP) in children with short stature or low growth velocity. DESIGN: Using SSNP and subsequent AITT, we examined 257 children 4-18 years old (138 (53.7%) males) recruited from three hospitals. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively. Refractory children were defined as a GH peak ≥7 µg/L during SSNP but no GH peak ≥7 µg/L during AITT. RESULTS: In total, 201/257 children had a GH peak ≥7 µg/L at SSNP and/or AITT. Of these, 21.9% were refractory. The proportion of males (p = 0.033) and body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score (SDS) (p = 0.037) were higher in the refractory group than in children with a GH peak ≥7 µg/L during AITT. The median period between last GH peak ≥7 µg/L during SSNP and GHmax at AITT was 210 (30-390) minutes. The GHmax at AITT occurred 30 min earlier for children without a peak ≥7 µg/L during the SSNP (p = 0.004). The number of refractoriness differed somewhat between the hospitals (p = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Many children with short stature were refractory at testing; among them we found few clinical characteristics. Refractoriness might be influenced by some differences in procedure, but needs to be considered when evaluating GH response in children.

Methods for analyzing positive cardiac troponin assay interference.

OBJECTIVES: The cardiac damage biomarkers cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and troponin I (cTnI) are used to identify patients with myocardial infarction (MI). To make the correct clinical decisions it is important to identify false positive results due to troponin assay interference. Often interferences are caused by high-molecular weight immunocomplexes called macrotroponin that may result in false troponin elevations because of delayed troponin clearance, or heterophilic antibodies that crosslink troponin assay antibodies and generate troponin-independent signals. DESIGN & METHODS: We describe and compare four methods for cTnI assay interference analysis using a protein G spin column method, gel filtration chromatography and two versions of a sucrose gradient ultracentrifugation for cTnI assay interference analysis on five patients with confirmed cTnI interference and one MI patient without cTnI interference from our troponin interference referral center. RESULTS: The protein G spin column method had a high between run variability but was still able to identify all five patients with cTnI interference. The sucrose gradient ultracentrifugation methods and the gel filtration method had simlar performancec and correctly identified the immunocomplexes that caused the cTnI interference. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience is that these methods are sufficient to safely confirm or exclude positive cTnI assay interference.

Migrants' Social Integration and Its Relevance for National Identification: An Empirical Comparison Across Three Social Spheres.

A key element of migrants' well-being is their emotional integration, that is, the extent to which they perceive themselves as members of society and their identification with the country they are living in. To foster this sense of belonging, many integration programs aim to increase the migrants' social integration, for example, by organizing events for migrants to meet natives in various settings. The validity of this strategy is supported by decades of international research. It remains unclear, however, which aspects of social integration are most relevant for national identification. Multiple theories concerned with contact and group identification support the assumption that contact to natives should foster a sense of belonging and national identification. However, for a contact situation to bear this potential, a certain set of criteria, including aspects like direct personal contact, a similar social status, and the presence of egalitarian norms, needs to be fulfilled. It is expected that these characteristics are more likely to be fulfilled within family and friendship settings than in contact situations within the employment context. Hence, I expect contact to natives within the network of friends and family to be more greatly associated with migrants' national identification. I analyzed data from a 2013 cooperation between the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), that is, the IAB-SOEP Migration Sample, as well as the 2014 wave of the SOEP. The subsample used included 2,780 first- and second-generation migrants living in Germany. The results indicate that not all kinds of contact are equally linked to national identification. In contrast to expectations, in neither the cross-sectional models nor the lagged models was living together with native family members significantly linked to national identification. Similarly, the association between having predominantly native co-workers and national identification was insignificant when controlling for migrant-specific characteristics. Only the relation with having predominantly native friends was significant and positive across all models. This as well as a comparison of the associations lead to the conclusion that when it comes to migrants' national identification native friends might be the most relevant form of contact to natives.

Association Between Endothelial Cell Stabilizing Medication and Small Vessel Disease Stroke: A Case-Control Study.

Increasing evidence suggests a role for endothelial cell (EC) dysfunction in pathogenesis of cerebral small vessel disease. Commonly used medications including certain antihypertensives and statins have EC-stabilizing effects. We used individual patient data from completed acute stroke trials to assess whether prior exposure to EC-stabilizing medications was associated with lacunar stroke, using lacunar stroke as a clinical proxy for cerebral small vessel disease. Across 12,002 patients with relevant data, 2,855 (24%) had a lacunar stroke presentation. Univariable analyses suggested potential confounding from vascular diseases treated with EC-stabilizing medications. Initial multivariable logistic regression gave conflicting results when describing the independent association of exposure to EC-stabilizing medication and lacunar stroke in the complete population (O.R. 0.87, 95% C.I.: 0.77- 0.98) and limited to those taking any antihypertensive (O.R. 1.51, 95% C.I.: 1.21-1.88). Re-running the analyses including statins in the EC-stabilizing category suggested a beneficial effect of EC-stabilizing medication exposure on lacunar stroke incidence (O.R. 0.83, 95% C.I.: 0.73-0.93). These results align with recent pre-clinical data and would support interventional trials of EC-stabilizing medication for preventing cerebral small vessel disease. Our results also suggest that analyses of EC-stabilizing interventions need to adjust for potential endothelial effects of other co-prescribed medication.

Progressive myoclonus ataxia: Time for a new definition?

BACKGROUND: The clinical demarcation of the syndrome progressive myoclonus ataxia is unclear, leading to a lack of recognition and difficult differentiation from other neurological syndromes. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to apply a refined definition of progressive myoclonus ataxia and describe the clinical characteristics in patients with progressive myoclonus ataxia and with isolated cortical myoclonus. METHODS: A retro- and prospective analysis was performed in our tertiary referral center between 1994 and 2014. Inclusion criteria for progressive myoclonus ataxia patients were the presence of myoclonus and ataxia with or without infrequent (all types, treatment responsive) epileptic seizures. Inclusion criteria for isolated cortical myoclonus was the presence of isolated cortical myoclonus. Clinical and electrophysiological characteristics data were systematically scored. RESULTS: A total of 14 progressive myoclonus ataxia patients (males, 7; females, 7), median age 14.5 years, and 8 isolated cortical myoclonus patients (males, 2; females, 6), median age 23.5 years, were identified. In 93% of the progressive myoclonus ataxia patients, ataxia started first (median 2 years) followed by myoclonus (4 years) and finally infrequent epilepsy (9.3 years), with a progressive course in 93%. In 64% of the progressive myoclonus ataxia patients, a genetic underlying etiology was identified, including 3 not earlier reported causative progressive myoclonus ataxia genes. In isolated cortical myoclonus patients, myoclonus started at (median) 12 years with progression over time in 63% and a single epileptic seizure in 1 patient. No genetic causes were identified. CONCLUSION: Using a refined definition, we could create a rather homogenous progressive myoclonus ataxia group. Patients with isolated cortical myoclonus have a different course and do not appear to evolve in progressive myoclonus ataxia. The refined progressive myoclonus ataxia definition is a successful first step toward creating a separate syndrome for both clinical practice and future genetic research. © 2018 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Identification of plasma protein profiles associated with risk groups of prostate cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Early detection of prostate cancer (PC) using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in blood reduces PC-death among unscreened men. However, due to modest specificity of PSA at commonly used cut-offs, there are urgent needs for additional biomarkers contributing enhanced risk classification among men with modestly elevated PSA. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Recombinant antibody microarrays were applied for protein expression profiling of 80 plasma samples from routine PSA-measurements, a priori divided into four risk groups, based on levels of total and %free PSA. RESULTS: The results demonstrated that plasma protein profiles could be identified that pin-pointed PC (a malignant biomarker signature) and most importantly that showed moderate to high correlation with biochemically defined PC risk groups. Notably, the data also implied that the risk group with midrange PSA and low %free PSA, a priori known to be heterogeneous, could be further stratified into two subgroups, more resembling the lowest and highest risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In this pilot study, we have shown that plasma protein biomarker signatures, associated with risk groups of PC, could be identified from crude plasma samples using affinity proteomics. This approach could in the longer perspective provide novel opportunities for improved risk classification of PC patients.

Rapid elimination kinetics of free PSA or human kallikrein-related peptidase 2 after initiation of gonadotropin-releasing hormone-antagonist treatment of prostate cancer: potential for rapid monitoring of treatment responses.

BACKGROUND: The utility of conventional prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements in blood for monitoring rapid responses to treatment for prostate cancer is limited because of its slow elimination rate. Prior studies have shown that free PSA (fPSA), intact PSA (iPSA) and human kallikrein-related peptidase 2 (hK2) are eliminated more rapidly after radical prostatectomy. In contrast, all three markers have similarly slow elimination rates after castration induced by gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists, possibly due to the slow onset of castration. Therefore, we assessed elimination rates of tPSA, fPSA, iPSA and hK2 after rapid induction of castration with degarelix (Firmagon(®)), a novel GnRH antagonist. METHODS: This study included 24 patients treated with degarelix. Blood was taken at 1, 3, 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after injection of degarelix. Free and total PSA were measured with a commercial dual-label assay, and with inhouse research assays of intact PSA and hK2. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range, IQR) tPSA at baseline was 23.4 (15.8, 59.8). Twenty-two patients (92 % ) reached castrate levels of testosterone within 24 h of degarelix initiation, and all patients did so within 72 h. All kallikrein forms declined in an exponential fashion after degarelix administration. The median time to 50 % reduction in biomarker level was 8 ­ 9 days for tPSA or complexed PSA vs. 2-4 days for hK2, iPSA and fPSA. The percentage eliminated at day 3 and day 7 was significantly higher for hK2, iPSA and fPSA than for tPSA (all p < 0.02), while tPSA and complexed PSA were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid decline of fPSA, iPSA and hK2 after fast induction of castration with degarelix is similar to that reported after prostatectomy and offers a novel, informative method to monitor rapid onset of therapeutic action targeting signaling of the androgen receptor.

Prospectively measured thyroid hormones and thyroid peroxidase antibodies in relation to breast cancer risk.

Thyroid hormones influence both normal breast cell differentiation and breast cancer cell proliferation and stimulate the angiogenesis of certain cancer forms. Several cross-sectional studies have measured thyroid hormones/autoantibodies in breast cancer ceases vs. controls, but it is difficult to determine the cause-effect direction in these studies. Only three prospective studies have reported on the subject so far. The aim of our study was to investigate prediagnostically measured levels of thyroid hormones, thyrotropin (TSH) and thyroid autoantibodies in relation to subsequent risk of breast cancer. The Malmoe Diet and Cancer study examined 17,035 women between 1991 and 1996. Blood samples were collected at baseline and free triiodothyronine (T3), free thyroxin (T4), TSH and thyroid peroxidase autoantibodies (TPO-Ab) levels were measured in 676 cases and 680 controls. Relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were assessed using a logistic regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders. Free T4 levels were positively associated with a high risk of breast cancer, and the OR for women with free T4 levels above vs. below the median was 1.40 (1.10-1.77). This association was most pronounced in overweight women (1.51:1.07-2.12). Women with high levels of TPO-Ab had a lower risk of breast cancer, but only the analysis of TPO-Ab as a continuous variable reached statistical significance. Free T4 was in our study positively associated with a high risk of breast cancer. This association was most pronounced in overweight/obese women. Women with a high level of TPO-Ab had a relatively low risk of breast cancer.

Circadian variation in concentration of anti-Müllerian hormone in regularly menstruating females: relation to age, gonadotrophin and sex steroid levels.

BACKGROUND: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is a promising marker of ovarian reserve. The aim of the study is to assess the circadian variation in AMH, and to evaluate its clinical relevance and biological aspects as an effect of age and other endocrine mechanisms involved in the regulation of AMH secretion. METHODS: Nineteen healthy non-smoking, regularly menstruating female volunteers with body mass index below 30 kg/m(2), 10 aged 20-30 years (Group A) and 9 aged 35-45 (Group B) were included. Blood sampling, initiated at 8:00 a.m. on Days 2-6 of the menstrual cycle, was continued every second hour until 8:00 a.m. the following day. Serum levels of AMH, FSH, LH, progesterone and estradiol were measured. RESULTS: With 8:00 a.m. values at the first day of investigation as a reference, the mean concentrations in the pooled data revealed a significantly lower level at 4:00 a.m. (P = 0.021) and 6:00 a.m. (P = 0.005) with a maximum mean difference of 1.9 pmol/l (10.6%). The same pattern was seen in both the age groups. Including both the age groups, the overall circadian variation of the AMH levels did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.059). A significant positive correlation between AMH and LH concentration was seen over the 24-h period (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A slight decrease in serum AMH levels during the late night appears not clinically relevant. Co-variation in the levels of LH and AMH might indicate joint regulatory mechanisms for the latter hormone and gonadotrophins.

Toward next generation plasma profiling via heat-induced epitope retrieval and array-based assays.

There is a need for high throughput methods for screening patient samples in the quest for potential biomarkers for diagnostics and patient care. Here, we used a combination of undirected target selection, antibody suspension bead arrays, and heat-induced epitope retrieval to allow for protein profiling of human plasma in a novel and systematic manner. Several antibodies were found to reveal altered protein profiles upon epitope retrieval at elevated temperatures with limits of detection improving into lower ng/ml ranges. In a study based on prostate cancer patients, several proteins with differential profiles were discovered and subsequently validated in an independent cohort. For one of the potential biomarkers, the human carnosine dipeptidase 1 protein (CNDP1), the differences were determined to be related to the glycosylation status of the targeted protein. The study shows a path of pursuit for large scale screening of biobank repositories in a flexible and proteome-wide fashion by utilizing heat-induced epitope retrieval and using an antibody suspension bead array format.

C-peptide in dried blood spots.

The aim was to evaluate if the Dried Blood Spot (DBS)-technique can be used to analyse C-peptide. S-C-peptide and paired whole blood clotted on filters, dried, punched out and eluted were sampled from 198 healthy subjects. Six subjects with S-C-peptide values outside the reference range were excluded. A conversion formula using log-DBS-C-peptide was generated in a subset of 156 (∼80%) subjects with predictions made using also storage time (eluates) and age of subjects: (log S-C-peptide = 1.696 + 1.367 log DBS-C-peptide + 0.058 (storage time/month) + 0.014 (age/10 years). This formula was cross validated into the original population. Using Bland-Altman plots, mean difference between converted log DBS-C-peptide and log S-C-peptide at baseline was 0 and limits of agreements were -0.18 to +0.18. Mean difference between converted log DBS-C-peptide values after six months and log S-C-peptide value from baseline was -0.01 and limits of agreement were -0.20-0.19. The lowest value detected with the DBS-technique corresponded to serum C-peptide 0.44 nmol/L. We concluded that DBS-C-peptide can be used as a first line screening test to monitor normal beta cell function. C-peptide on filters remained stable for six months.

Comparison of measurements of autoantibodies to glutamic acid decarboxylase and islet antigen-2 in whole blood eluates from dried blood spots using the RSR-enzyme linked immunosorbent assay kits and in-house radioimmunoassays.

To evaluate the performance of dried blood spots (DBSs) with subsequent analyses of glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) and islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) with the RSR-ELISAs, we selected 80 children newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and 120 healthy women. DBSs from patients and controls were used for RSR-ELISAs while patients samples were analysed also with in-house RIAs. The RSR-ELISA-GADA performed well with a specificity of 100%, albeit sensitivity (46%) was lower compared to in RIA (56%; P = .008). No prozone effect was observed after dilution of discrepant samples. RSR-ELISA-IA-2A achieved specificity of 69% and sensitivity was lower (59%) compared with RIA (66%; P < .001). Negative or low positive patients and control samples in the RSR-ELISA-IA-2A increased after dilution. Eluates from DBS can readily be used to analyse GADA with the RSR-ELISA, even if low levels of autoantibodies were not detected. Some factor could disturb RSR-ELISA-IA-2A analyses.

Impact of recent screening on predicting the outcome of prostate cancer biopsy in men with elevated prostate-specific antigen: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Gothenburg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Risk models to predict prostate cancer on biopsy, whether they include only prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or other markers, are intended for use in all men of screening age. However, the association between PSA and cancer probably depends on a man's recent screening history. METHODS: The authors examined the effect of prior screening on the ability to predict the risk of prostate cancer by using a previously reported, 4-kallikrein panel that included total PSA, free PSA, intact PSA, and human kallikrein-related peptidase 2 (hK2). The study cohort comprised 1241 men in Gothenburg, Sweden who underwent biopsy for elevated PSA during their second or later visit for the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. The predictive accuracy of the 4-kallikrein panel was calculated. RESULTS: Total PSA was not predictive of prostate cancer. The previously published 4-kallikrein model increased predictive accuracy compared with total PSA and age alone (area under the curve [AUC], 0.66 vs 0.51; P < .001) but was poorly calibrated and missed many cancers. A model that was developed with recently screened men provided important improvements in discrimination (AUC, 0.67 vs 0.56; P < .001). Using this model reduced the number of biopsies by 413 per 1000 men with elevated PSA, missed 60 of 216 low-grade cancers (Gleason score < or =6), but missed only 1 of 43 high-grade cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Previous participation in PSA screening dramatically changed the performance of statistical models that were designed to predict biopsy outcome. A 4-kallikrein panel was able to predict prostate cancer in men who had a recent screening history and provided independent confirmation that multiple kallikrein forms contribute important diagnostic information for men with elevated PSA. Cancer

A comparison of serum and EDTA plasma in the measurement of glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) and autoantibodies to islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) using the RSR radioimmunoassay (RIA) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits.

BACKGROUND: Glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (GADA) and tyrosine phosphatase antibodies (islet antigen-2 antibodies; IA-2A) are used in clinical practise to identify type 1 diabetes. METHODS: GADA and IA-2A were measured with RSR-ELISA kits in samples from 76 newly diagnosed type 1 diabetic children and 120 healthy controls. The aim was to evaluate performance of RSR-ELISA kits for GADA and IA-2A when serum and Ca2+ treated plasma were used. RESULTS: GADA achieved high area under the curve (AUC) both for serum 0.95 (95% CI 0.90-0.99) and for Ca2+ treated plasma 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-0.99). At specificity 98%, sensitivity was 84% for serum and 87% for Ca2+ treated plasma. IA-2A achieved AUC 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.97) for serum and 0.94 (95% CI 0.90-0.98) for Ca2+ treated plasma. Using the lowest standard (15 WHO-Units/ml) as cut-off, specificity for serum was 100% and for Ca2+ treated plasma 99% with sensitivity 74% in both cases. Sensitivity was higher in ELISA compared to RIA (74%; p = 0.0080) for GADA measurement and similar for ELISA and RIA IA-2A measurements (76%; p = 0.50). CONCLUSION: Both RSR-ELISAs, GADA and IA-2A showed excellent performance for serum as well as for Ca2+ treated plasma.

A panel of kallikrein markers can reduce unnecessary biopsy for prostate cancer: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Göteborg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used to detect prostate cancer. The low positive predictive value of elevated PSA results in large numbers of unnecessary prostate biopsies. We set out to determine whether a multivariable model including four kallikrein forms (total, free, and intact PSA, and human kallikrein 2 (hK2)) could predict prostate biopsy outcome in previously unscreened men with elevated total PSA. METHODS: The study cohort comprised 740 men in Göteborg, Sweden, undergoing biopsy during the first round of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. We calculated the area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting prostate cancer at biopsy. AUCs for a model including age and PSA (the 'laboratory' model) and age, PSA and digital rectal exam (the 'clinical' model) were compared with those for models that also included additional kallikreins. RESULTS: Addition of free and intact PSA and hK2 improved AUC from 0.68 to 0.83 and from 0.72 to 0.84, for the laboratory and clinical models respectively. Using a 20% risk of prostate cancer as the threshold for biopsy would have reduced the number of biopsies by 424 (57%) and missed only 31 out of 152 low-grade and 3 out of 40 high-grade cancers. CONCLUSION: Multiple kallikrein forms measured in blood can predict the result of biopsy in previously unscreened men with elevated PSA. A multivariable model can determine which men should be advised to undergo biopsy and which might be advised to continue screening, but defer biopsy until there was stronger evidence of malignancy.

Prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50 as a predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Based on a large, representative unscreened cohort from Malmö, Sweden, we have recently reported that a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement at or before age 50 is a strong predictor of prostate cancer occurring up to 25 years subsequently. We aimed to determine whether this association holds for advanced cancers, defined as clinical stage T3 or higher, or skeletal metastasis at the time of the cancer diagnosis. METHODS: In 1974-1986 blood samples were obtained from a cohort of 21,277 men aged up to 50. Through 1999, 498 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer, and of these 161 had locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancers. Three controls, matched for age and date of venipuncture, were selected for each case. Conditional logistic regression was used to test associations between molecular markers and advanced cancer. RESULTS: Median time from venipuncture to diagnosis was 17 years. Levels of all PSA forms and hK2 were associated with case status. Total PSA was a strong and statistically significant predictor of subsequent advanced cancer (area under the curve 0.791; p < 0.0005). Two-thirds of the advanced cancer cases occurred in men with the top 20% of PSA levels (0.9 ng/ml or higher). CONCLUSION: A single PSA test taken at or before age 50 is a very strong predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later. This suggests the possibility of using an early PSA test to risk-stratify patients so that men at highest risk are the focus of the most intensive screening efforts.

Long-term prediction of prostate cancer: prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity is predictive but does not improve the predictive accuracy of a single PSA measurement 15 years or more before cancer diagnosis in a large, representative, unscreened population.

PURPOSE: We tested whether total prostate-specific antigen velocity (tPSAv) improves accuracy of a model using PSA level to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. METHODS: During 1974 to 1986 in a preventive medicine study in Sweden, 5,722 men aged

Long-term prediction of prostate cancer up to 25 years before diagnosis of prostate cancer using prostate kallikreins measured at age 44 to 50 years.

PURPOSE: We examined whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) forms and human kallikrein 2 (hK2) measured at age 44 to 50 years predict long-term risk of incident prostate cancer. METHODS: From 1974 to 1986, 21,277 men age 50 years in Malmö, Sweden, enrolled onto a cardiovascular study (74% participation). The rate of PSA screening in this population is low. According to the Swedish Cancer Registry, 498 were later diagnosed with prostate cancer. We measured hK2, free PSA, and total PSA (tPSA) in archived blood plasma from 462 participants later diagnosed with prostate cancer and from 1,222 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to test for association of prostate cancer with hK2 and PSA forms measured at baseline. RESULTS: Median delay between venipuncture and prostate cancer diagnosis was 18 years. hK2 and all PSA forms were strongly associated with prostate cancer (all P < .0005). None of the 90 anthropometric, lifestyle, biochemical, and medical history variables measured at baseline was importantly predictive. A tPSA increase of 1 ng/mL was associated with an increase in odds of cancer of 3.69 (95% CI, 2.99 to 4.56); addition of other PSA forms or hK2 did not add to the predictive value of tPSA. tPSA remained predictive for men diagnosed > or = 20 years after venipuncture, and the predictive value remained unchanged in an analysis restricted to palpable disease. CONCLUSION: A single PSA test at age 44 to 50 years predicts subsequent clinically diagnosed prostate cancer. This raises the possibility of risk stratification for prostate cancer screening programs.